Tough question.. I don't have a pretty chart or spreadsheet of statistics for this one..
Winter 2010 and 2011 were HOT, not temperature wise (although for snowbirds maybe it was! 55F or 13C).
Real estate prices were at very low points. It was not uncommon to bid on a home at or over asking price and still not get it. It was very hard to explain to a buyer that the market was so fast moving, that sometimes homes were listed below market value to get an abundance of offers or maybe the agent wanted his phone to ring from prospective buyers! It seemed that maybe in 2010 there were some snowbirds that bought in the Phoenix Market, went back home and told their friends about the values, and those friends came down in 2011 and bought!
Fast forward 2012 winter...... showings and sales dropped quite a bit from the previous 2 years.
Couple of theories...
1.Maybe most of the folks that were considering AZ bought their homes already and are owners.
2. Maybe the folks that were visiting in 2010 or 2011 and they got a bad taste in their mouth about dealing with short sales or multiple bidding scenarios and lost faith in AZ/agent
3. Personal/Financial issues affecting them in their hometown.
In short... No one is 100% sure what will happen in the next 2 months, One thing is for sure, those folks looking for a $90,000 newer home like their friends bought in 2010 will be spending more than $90,000
If I had a dollar for everything a client said "I should have bought more than one!"
Not sure what will happen in a week or 2, call me and I will tell you what happened last week!
Cheers, Brian 602.206.9644