End of Month January Sales summary!
Monday, March 02, 2009
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February 2009
January ARMLS Reports
Resale Listings
The listing count reported in the January Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS)1 Reports, which were released on February 18th, was 53,601—down 191 listings from the December reports. The listing quantity has now been above 52,000 for 23 months and has not varied more than 5% during that time period. This current level remains substantially above the record level of listings prior to January 2005 which was 30,046 listings in February 2003.
Resale Sales
ARMLS-reported sales for January dropped 14% from the December sales figure with a decrease of 788. On an annually adjusted basis sales were up 1,829 or almost 63% from January 2008. This is the eighth consecutive month that there has been an increase in sales over the same month in the prior year. January’s sales quantity typically drops a little from December’s, so this month’s change is not out of the ordinary per the normal calendar cycle. In the normal calendar cycle, sales tend to be highest in the summer and then gradually taper off over the next few months before resuming the climb during the first quarter of each year. The winter months are consistently the lowest in sales.
A Two Year Perspective
The graph below displays the same data as above, but focuses on only the most recent 24 months.
Adjusted Monthly Sales Trend
Sales, when compared to one year ago, rose for the eighth month in a row. This increase of 1,829 is illustrated in the chart below.
The above chart is divided into market condition segments by comparing current sales activity to the sales activity during the same month in the previous year. Orange reflects relatively normal conditions; Green shows higher than average sales; and Red indicates slowing market activity.
Analysis of these figures clearly shows the following:
1. From January 2003 through September 2005, sales increased every month when compared to that month in the year prior (from orange to green, then back to orange).
2. Every sales number from October 2005 through May 2008- thirty two months - reflects a decrease in sales from the same month in the year prior (red).
3. Starting in June 2008 each month has shown an increase in MLS sales from the same month one year prior (orange).
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